A new study warns that the Gulf Stream system could falter as early as mid century. But what happens if this vital oceanic current collapses, and how can we prevent it from reaching this tipping point?
July 29, 2023
According to recent research, the ocean’s intricate dance of currents, crucial to the Earth’s climate, faces an alarming and imminent threat that demands our immediate attention.
A new study, titled “Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,” published by researchers from the the University of Copenhagen in the journal Nature Communications, has sent shockwaves through the scientific community.
The study raises alarming concerns about the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a complex system of ocean currents that includes the Gulf Stream. According to the research, there is a risk of the AMOC collapsing between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2050. Such a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for our planet’s climate. In particular, the Gulf Stream, as a vital component of the AMOC, would be severely affected.
In this regard in the 2021 Sixth IPCC Assessment Report stated that “the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will very likely decline over the 21st century for all SSP scenarios. There is medium confidence that the decline will not involve an abrupt collapse before 2100.”
The potential collapse of the AMOC, renowned for its role in redistributing warmth globally and nourishing marine life, looms large, demanding urgent action to avert a climate disaster.
Whether the consequences of such an event will be as catastrophic as mentioned or not, the significance of the AMOC cannot be understated.
As a crucial component of our planet’s climate system, it plays a vital role in maintaining the delicate balance of our oceans and sustaining marine ecosystems.
But what exactly is the Gulf Stream and its significance in our climate system?
The Gulf Stream, a powerful and warm ocean current, flows from the Gulf of Mexico along the eastern coast of the United States and crosses the Atlantic Ocean to reach the coasts of Western Europe.
This mighty current acts as a vital component of the AMOC, a “global conveyor belt” of interconnected currents, which redistributes warmth around the planet and nourishes marine life by transporting essential nutrients.
However, the AMOC’s delicate balance is under threat due to the ongoing climate crisis and the resulting changes in ocean temperature and salinity.
The newly published study remarks also the previously stated scientific findings that the AMOC is already at its weakest point in 1,600 years, primarily due to global heating.
Scientists have observed warning signs of a potential slowdown of AMOC in the last 20 years, but this recent analysis presents a more alarming estimate.
Past collapses of similar ocean currents during ice ages have shown temperature changes of up to 10 degrees Celsius within just a few decades.
The consequences of an AMOC collapse would be nothing short of disastrous.
Apart from causing disruptions to weather patterns across the globe, it could result in rapidly rising sea levels, which would pose severe threats to coastal communities and ecosystems.
What can be done to prevent collapse?
The research recently published underscores the urgency of mitigating climate change’s effects to protect the AMOC.
As the study highlights, “though we have established firm statistical methods to evaluate the confidence in the observed Early Warning Signals (EWS), we can at present not rule out the possibility that a collapse will only be partial and not lead to a full collapse of the AMOC as suggested by some models.”
The research acknowledges certain reservations and uncertainties, as some models indicate a potential for partial tipping before a complete shutdown of the AMOC.
Despite these caveats, the study’s findings serve as a wake-up call, emphasizing the need for urgent action.
The researchers emphasize that regardless of the specific scenario, the risk of the AMOC’s destabilization warrants immediate attention and collective efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change.
“Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC.”
Experts’ reactions on the matter have differed quite a lot.
Professor of Earth Systems at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, Richard Pancost, commented:
“This paper provides evidence that our carbon emissions have pushed us towards this tipping point. What is particularly important about this paper is how it highlights the non-linear responses to climate change – we are not sure what degree of warming will cause key aspects of the Earth system to change.”
And Professor Meric Srokosz from the National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, commented:
“The warning comes from applying statistical techniques to a long time series (over a century) of proxy AMOC data, but the warning is only as good as the proxy data are in representing the true AMOC. So, this warning needs to be treated with caution as there is no consensus as to which proxies can accurately capture the behaviour of the AMOC over the long term.”
The study highlights the need to address two critical factors: reducing the increase in temperature and freshwater input caused by ice melting into the North Atlantic region.
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Tackling these issues head-on through collective efforts can help stabilize the AMOC’s delicate balance and safeguard the global climate.
This article was originally published on IMPAKTER. Read the original article.