Evaluating Canada’s pledge to triple nuclear capacity

by Nicholas Palaschuk. Originally published on Policy Options
November 18, 2024

As we watch negotiations at the COP29 climate change conference and mark the one-year anniversary of Canada’s pledge to triple its nuclear capacity by 2050, the reality would appear to be clear: there is no feasible net-zero future without the deployment of new nuclear power.

This pledge signals a shift for a country that just three years ago excluded nuclear from its clean energy funding programs. Nuclear power, historically controversial, is increasingly viewed by leaders across the political spectrum as key to helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

On the public front, SaskPower’s creation of SaskNuclear and the federal government’s $13.6-million investment in small modular reactors (SMR) research are setting the stage for regulatory advancements. In parallel, the private sector is demonstrating confidence in the industry’s economic potential, as evidenced by Cameco and Brookfield’s Westinghouse acquisition and GE Hitachi’s ground-breaking project in Ontario.

This commitment is not only evidence-based and supported by clear science, but also comes at a crucial time when Canada has become a net importer of electricity for the first time, as reported by Statistics Canada in April.

The importance of new nuclear energy

In its 2022 report, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the clear role of nuclear power in the mitigation of climate change. By mid-century, global investments in nuclear are projected to exceed $100 billion per year. Coinciding with this global trend, Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has forecast a significant increase in provincial electricity demand, projecting it to reach 263 terawatt hours by 2050. To put this in perspective, one terawatt can power 70,000 homes for a year, so Ontario’s forecast is equivalent to enough power for more than 18 million households annually.

Numerous studies highlight the necessity for increasing nuclear energy. They include results of an International Energy Agency   report which indicated that global nuclear capacity must double by 2050. A joint analysis by the Nuclear Energy Agency and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) goes a step further. It says tripling current nuclear power capacity by 2050 is necessary if we are to reach global net-zero emissions by then.

Recent developments in the United States show the growing global momentum behind nuclear energy. These include the Biden administration’s $1.5-billion loan to restore the Palisades plant and Constellation Energy’s partnership with Microsoft to restart Three Mile Island.

What does this mean for Canada?

While the Biden administration has made concrete plans to expand nuclear power (something that could change under Donald Trump’s second term), Canada’s pledge lacks formal commitments for new nuclear plants. This policy gap creates uncertainty for investors and industry stakeholders. It’s crucial that we match today’s ambition with more decisive action so as to provide a clear direction and maintain our position as a nuclear technology leader.

Addressing concerns and risks

Expanding nuclear generation raises fair questions that governments must address. Plants are capital-intensive with benefits often not realized for 10 to 15 years. Waste management strategies, although they have advanced, still have gaps.

These are genuine concerns, but there is progress. The $26-billion geological repository project in Ignace, Ont., is an example of how communities can benefit from such facilities while ensuring safe, long-term storage of nuclear waste.

But with Ontario’s grid requiring three times more generating capacity by 2040, Canadians must move beyond traditional framing of the energy transition as an “either-or” debate.

We can no longer afford to rank our clean energy options, favoring renewables like solar and wind, while treating nuclear as a backup plan. The scale of our energy challenge demands that we deploy all low-carbon technologies simultaneously.

A call to government for action

Canada’s first clean electricity strategy is slated to be released this year, and the federal government has signalled that expanding power capacity will be a top priority.

But to do that the country must place nuclear at the forefront of all energy conversations and policy decisions. We need our policymakers to make an increase in total power capacity of large-scale nuclear reactors a priority.

Our allies in the U.S. and United Kingdom are similarly on their own nuclear energy journey. Their work on regulations, funding and innovation can provide a blueprint for Canada’s plans to safely and efficiently advance the country’s nuclear infrastructure.

At the Climate Insider, we recommend the federal government:

• Launch an advanced nuclear technology demonstration program similar to one in the U.S. and create an innovation hub.
• Create a framework that shares project risks between government and industry, combined with production-based tax incentives making it easier to secure financing.
• Modernize regulations — including staged licensing and upfront industry guidelines — to speed the delivery of new nuclear technologies.
• Establish a public-private partnership for information on the nuclear market to enable decision-making among investors and innovators.
• Build on Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson’s comments earlier this year on faster approval for nuclear projects. A working group of federal and provincial representatives could develop an approach that would prioritize a project’s efficiency and responsiveness to provincial needs, while maintaining the integrity of environmental assessments.

Canada has been a leader in nuclear energy and research since developing the Candu reactor in the early 1950s. It is also a major supplier worldwide of medical isotopes. We have an opportunity to expand our global status, but this requires overcoming years of policy inaction while other nations have modernized their nuclear strategies. To triple our nuclear capacity by 2050, we need clear priorities and unwavering political commitment.

The path to a net-zero grid begins here.

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This article first appeared on Policy Options and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.