Growing aridification is a “dire threat to human well-being,” warns the new report
December 19, 2024
According to a new analysis from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), 77.6% of land on the planet experienced drier conditions from 1990 to 2020 than from the three decades prior. The total area of drylands grew by around 4.3 million square kilometres, an area larger than India. These drylands now cover over 40% of all land on Earth, excluding Antarctica. These figures are all expected to grow should greenhouse gas emissions not be curbed.
The UNCCD’s report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, was presented at the UNCCD’s 16th conference, the first hosted in the Middle East, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Most of the areas that have become drylands in recent times were once humid landscapes; the climate shift has had drastic effects on agriculture, ecosystems and the people living there.
Aridity is thought to be the main driver behind failing agricultural systems, impacting 40% of the world’s cultivable land. In Africa alone, a 12% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) from 1990 to 2015 has been in part due to rising aridity, according to the UNCCD.
“This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” said UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw. “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.”
Thiaw added: “Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation. Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
The report by the UNCCD assessed that human-caused climate change was the main catalyst for the Earth’s increasing aridity. Greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet and affected rainfall patterns, which have in turn impacted plant life.
This news comes despite the intensifying storms and floods occurring across the globe with increasing frequency. In the most recent Atlantic hurricane season, which ended last month, 18 tropical storms were formed, with 11 reaching hurricane strength and five developing into major hurricanes — including Hurricane Helene, the deadliest hurricane to affect the US in 19 years.
Other parts of the world have seen more direct impacts from aridification. 95.9% of land in Europe is under risk of becoming arid. The western United States, Brazil, central Africa and eastern Asia have also been identified as being at high risk by the UNCCD. South Sudan and Tanzania were named as the countries with the highest percentage of land transitioning to dryland, China has seen the largest total area become arid.
The UNCCD report highlights that 2.3 billion people, or more than 25% of the global population, currently live in expanding drylands. Land degradation resulting from aridity has threatened agriculture and represents “a dire threat to human well-being.”
It is estimated that by 2100, up to 5 billion people could live in drylands in a worst-case scenario. This population would have to deal with infertile soils and diminishing water resources. Aridity could also contribute to increased migration, as has already been seen in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.
The UNCCD report outlines methods to combat the growing issue of aridification, outside simply reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change holistically. They recommend strengthening aridity monitoring to detect conditions before they are irreversible, improving sustainable land use in vulnerable regions in particular, investing in water efficiency and developing international cooperation to fight the issue, among other practices.
“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline,” said Nicole Barger, Chair of the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface. “Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge. The question is not whether we have the tools to respond—it is whether we have the will to act.”
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This article was originally published on IMPAKTER. Read the original article.