Good news for Quebec’s sovereigntists

by Alex B. Rivard, Benjamin Ferland. Originally published on Policy Options
November 25, 2024

(Version française disponible ici)

Following the last Quebec election in October 2022, many analysts once again predicted the demise of the Parti Québécois. The party had achieved its worst result since its foundation, garnering barely 15 per cent of the popular vote and managing to elect only three MNAs. Halfway through the electoral cycle, we are witnessing a spectacular turnaround.

For the past year, support for the Parti Québécois has remained above 30 per cent (and currently stands at 35 per cent according to the latest Leger poll), which ensures it would form government if an election were held today. However, this significant upturn is not accompanied by increased support for sovereignty, as support for the “Yes” vote has remained stable at around 35 per cent for the last few years. And yet, PQ leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon has made independence a central part of his discourse, promising a referendum by the end of the decade if his party comes to power.

Against this backdrop, the PQ published its “Year 1 budget,” which examines the economic viability of Quebec as a country. Opponents of Quebec independence criticized the document, arguing that an independent Quebec would be in a more precarious situation than sovereigntists claim. In response, Saint-Pierre Plamondon accused the federalists of engaging in a “campaign of fear,” recalling the alarmist economic warnings from “No” supporters prior to the 1980 and 1995 referendums.

But what about French-speaking Quebecers, whose support for independence will be decisive? Are they worried about the economic risks associated with Quebec independence, or do they see more benefits? And what about possible advantages or disadvantages of other political issues, such as immigration and protection of the French language?

In the spring of 2024, we conducted a representative survey of the French-speaking electorate to answer these questions. We were also able to compare the state of public opinion with a similar survey conducted in 2014. Our survey also sounded out French-speaking Quebecers on their grievances with the federal government, providing a fairly comprehensive picture of the factors driving support for independence. Academic studies have highlighted that Quebecers’ grievances with the rest of Canada, as well as their assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of sovereignty, are at the heart of pro-independence motivations.

Our results are both surprising and intriguing, considering that the political dynamics of the past 10 years have been on the whole difficult for the Parti Québécois, the main vehicle of the sovereigntist movement. On the one hand, support for independence among French-speaking Quebecers remains relatively high, at 45 per cent. The same level of support was observed in our 2014 survey. On the other hand, public opinion among francophones on our various indicators of support for independence has hardly changed, and remains on the whole favorable to the independence movement.

For example, in Figure 1, we present the average opinion of French-speaking Quebecers regarding the possible benefits of an independent Quebec for seven salient political issues. For five of these issues, we were also able to compare changes in opinion between 2014 and 2024, since the same questions were asked.

In general, respondents to our survey tend to agree that it would be easier to protect the French language and Quebec identity and culture, and to control immigration in an independent Quebec than within Canada. They are more divided, however, on the economic and environmental benefits, and the possibility of solving problems in the health and education systems. In these areas of public policy, French-speaking Quebecers tend to believe that things would remain much the same. For each of the indicators for which data are available for 2014 and 2024, we observe no significant change.

Nor do we note any change in respondents’ concerns about economic uncertainties and the risk of conflict among Quebecers in the event of a third referendum. Overall, French-speaking Quebecers say they are “somewhat concerned” about the risk of bickering, while their level of concern is slightly higher about the economic uncertainties arising from a third referendum, as shown in Figure 2.

Finally, as shown in Figure 3, French-speaking Quebecers’ grievances with the federal government remained relatively high in 2024, as they were in 2014. For example, respondents “somewhat agree” that the ROC doesn’t care about Quebec and that it doesn’t recognize it as its equal. They also consider the rest of the country to be more right-wing than Quebec. To a lesser extent, French-speaking Quebecers also believe the federal government is detrimental to the protection of French and to the province’s economic development.

For the sovereigntist camp, these results are nonetheless encouraging. While the legislative representation of sovereigntist parties (Parti Québécois and Québec Solidaire) has fallen from 33 seats in 2014 to 14 seats today, support for independence among French-speaking Quebecers has remained stable, as has the overall pattern of key support factors. While under-25s francophones are more reticent about independence (38 per cent in this group support it), their views on the benefits, risks and attitudes towards the rest of the country are very similar to those of their elders.

Economics are the terrain where the two camps compete for undecided voters. On the one hand, sovereigntists argue that an independent Quebec would not only be economically viable, but would also be an economic powerhouse. On the other, federalists argue that the risks associated with independence would spell economic disaster. While the “No” camp appeals to fear, the “Yes” side can rely on hope, trying to convince voters that Quebec’s economic situation can only improve once independence is achieved.

The fact remains that French-speaking Quebecers are less convinced of the economic benefits of independence and a little more anxious about the inherent economic risks, hence the recent mobilization of federalists on this issue. In fact, it seems that the economy is currently the best card the federalists have to play. On other indicators, the sovereigntists seem to have a head start.

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This article first appeared on Policy Options and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.